A decade after the UK stumbled into a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused chaos, a caution comes from across the Irish Sea: it may occur once more.
The government and citizens drifted into Brexit and the similar might transpire with a national vote on a united Ireland, sparking upheavals for which nobody is equipped.
That conveys the caution from two leading commentators from both sides of the Irish border who have joined forces to scrutinise the advantages and disadvantages of Northern Ireland leaving the UK to establish a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Administrative Institutions Not Ready
The author and columnist and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are extremely ill-prepared for a potentially fraught and transformative referendum.
"The crucial insight of Brexit hasn't been learned, which is that events can arise suddenly and can gain traction rapidly," O’Toole remarked. "It is my view that the institutional structure of our region remains very unstable."
Book Publication Aims to Stir Debate
The pair have examined the governmental, financial and societal rationales for any governmental shift in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, released by the Dublin-based Royal Irish Academy.
They seek to provoke discussion on the issue with a roadshow of lectures that will take them to Westminster soon.
"What haunts everybody, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented the analyst.
"We do not want a national vote on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose consequences have not been spelled out because then you end up with an extremely divided society where people who have lost are resistant to losing and the victorious side don't know exactly what it is that they have gained."
Legal Framework
Under the Good Friday agreement, the Northern Ireland official should call a public vote on Irish unification if it seems probable that a majority would vote in favour.
Nationalist parties and other pro-unification groups argue this point is looming, and a non-profit named pro-unification advocates has rallied support, but authorities in Dublin and London and pro-UK factions downplay the prospect, resulting in ambiguity if and when there might be a national vote.
Insufficient Informed Dialogue
Political rhetoric supporting and opposing unification has masked the absence of substantive discussion, stated McBride.
"People tend to be for or against the idea but the concrete planning which might go beyond that to achieve it has largely not occurred. A great deal has occurred in scholarly circles but hardly any politicians or advocates are willing to participate with the basics. As an example, which kind of country might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Book's Approach
In the book, no writer advocates unification or the existing arrangement. They authors two essays that aim for objectivity in detailing the rationale for a united Ireland and the rationale opposing it, marshalling economic and social data, historical precedents and constitutional models.
Arguments range over flags and symbols, duties, medical care, pensions, sovereign debt obligations and the danger of pro-UK militancy. The objective is to inform and provoke conversation.
"There is significant curiosity in the subject but there hasn't quite been a discussion," commented the writer. "Debate implies an acceptance of the concept that there could be reasonable perspectives on either side."
Parallel Votes
A referendum in Northern Ireland would additionally cause one in the republic, where citizens say they prefer unity but reject paying higher taxes or implementing a new flag to recognise unionists' British identity.
"The Irish government should establish what the proposal from Irish nationalism is other than just saying: 'We seek a unified Ireland and we welcome you'," stated the commentator.
Probability of Public Vote
McBride thinks a national vote in his generation is probable and that it might occur abruptly. "There might be just a irresponsible or a ill-advised or a incompetent secretary of state who declares: 'Let's just do this and resolve it.'"
Each of the pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have reasonable, valid points, he stated. "Somebody will prevail in this matter and the other side will in the end lose but each side has has important lessons to acquire from the opposing arguments."
Call for Wider Discussion
Westminster needed to engage with the dialogue, said O’Toole. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It's a UK matter equally as it is an Irish question."
